If the U.S. Government Can Opt Out, Why Can’t Loudoun?

Could it be That We Have Something Backwards?

"How will Loudoun County pay for the Silverline now that the Federal government has opted out?",  This question has yet to be resolved, and probably never will be. That is because everyone wants the Metro when it is free but nobody likes it  nearly as much when they get a glimpse at the price tag.

In the last few weeks the Loudoun supervisors have studied this important decision, which they inherited from another time and another Board who bought into an idea without any set terms or costs. Some Supervisors are willing to do what the Board should do; they are questioning this proposal. 

The fact is we are not getting good answers.  Its time to start asking the right questions. Just forget what the pro-rail press releases say for a minute and think about these questions.

1. How can the transportation needs of Loudoun be addressed efficiently?
2. Does Rail to Dulles and Loudoun work for us?
3. Are there benefits that justify the costs?
4. Should the public be burdened with the costs?   

Gabriel Roth

 Randall O’Toole, 

Loudoun Opt Out Group offers this information from Gabriel Roth and Randall O’Toole, who have studied similar projects all over the world. Analyzing and reporting on tranportation is what they do. They have offered input that should carry a lot of weight considering Loudoun is now looking for ways to buy a tranportation product that may be a poor fit for the County's needs. Randall O'Toole also has  the novel idea that transit could be privatized and the users would be the payers.

The RCLCO Study said no net increase, just a shift of business. The 2004 FEIS said no significant improvement in traffic for $6 billion. A purchase that is a mismatch and that will become a permanent liability is nothing to rush into.

Here are some suggestions to get around  some of the problems with the project:

Shinyline to Loudoun Academy Awards

Don't miss the next episode of the, PLA / Non-union penalty mini-series, 

"Now you see it, now you don't, now you see it..."

Metro Shinyline to Loudoun Academy Awards

The stars were out Monday night at the Board of Supervisors' Metro Public Input Session in Leesburg and they were having fun as they talked about the pros and cons of the shiny train. Lots of local activists were there but more than a few sat this event out for some reason we just don’t know.

The We Love Rail and We Want it NOW group, were out in force, coming from Fairfax, Arlington, and even a few from Loudoun, many with hopes and concerns about a spending bonanza and the hype of riding the Metro Shinyline train to Loudoun.

Here’s a rundown of who took home the awards from the star-studded evening.

Loudoun Metro Tax Advisory Committee Formed

Loudoun  Metro Tax Advisory Committee

Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project

Summary of Proposed Loudoun Taxes and Alternative Scenarios

Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Tax

Board-presented options: $0.10- $0.17 (8%-13.7% increase over $1.235 base rate)

Note: statutory limit of $0.125 until June 30, 2013, then increases to $0.25

Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce Resolution: $0.10/$100 (8% increase over $1.235 base rate)

Problems with this proposed tax:

-Most of the western 2/3 of Loudoun is zoned AR1 or AR2, which has been declared by the Zoning Administrator and County Attorney to be commercial. The county is only allowed to exempt up to 15% of potentially impacted properties, so AR1 and AR2 will be hit by the C&I tax if this option is chosen by BOS.

-This funding proposition amounts to asking all businesses countywide to finance a shift of business development to rail station areas.

-A county-wide C&I property tax will be passed on to consumers, increasing the costs of all goods and services purchased in Loudoun County, and driving business out of Loudoun County.

-You may be told these taxes will go away eventually. The promise was made that the Dulles Toll Road tolls would go away. Instead DTR tolls will be soaring to new highs, as these taxes will in the future.

1-Mile Rail Service District

Board-presented options: $0.09- $0.20 (7.2%-16% increase over $1.235 base rate)

Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce Resolution: $0.20/$100 (16% increase over $1.235 base rate)

Problems with this proposed tax:

-The 1-mile tax district will cause businesses to consider locating just outside the line, reducing the projected revenues from the tax district, while undermining the intent of transit-oriented development to consolidate in high-density cores. Loudoun has not studied this; tax districts were not factored into RCLCO’s Dulles Rail Fiscal Impact analysis.

-You may be told these taxes will go away eventually. The promise was made that the Dulles Toll Road tolls would go away. Instead DTR tolls will be soaring to new highs, as these taxes will in the future.

-Creation of a tax district would likely require approval by the Virginia General Assembly, meaning any districts could not go into effect for some time, probably mid-2013 at the earliest, if ever. (waiting for official verification)

Conclusion

-Loudoun’s Supervisors were...

WARNING: Metro = Never Ending Debt and TAXES

WARNING

Note: The information below represents costs generated by Loudoun which are grossly understated, many costs categories are omitted, and forecast revenue is exaggerated.  


Note: There is no guarantee tax districts will ever be formed or that they could come close to generating enough revenue to protect citizens from being permanent  Metro cash cows.


Note: The fact that NONE of the elaborate and complex preparation to establish tax districts has even begun proves that the offer to do this timed at the last minute, is a cheap attempt to defraud the public.


The ONLY safe course is to first OPT OUT to protect the 99.99% of the people of Loudoun who will see no benefit whatsoever  from Rail. 

________________________________________________________________________

Metro to Loudoun At Any Cost? You Will Pay!

Proposed Metro Taxation Scheme

Cost to bring Metrorail two miles past Dulles Airport = $1.5 billion

A combination of these options is being considered by the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors: 

Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Tax

$0.10- $0.17 (8%-13.7% increase over $1.235 base rate)

1-Mile Rail District

$0.09- $0.20 (7.2%-16% increase over $1.235 base rate)

2-Mile Rail District

$0.09- $0.21 (7.2%-17% increase over $1.235 base rate)

Countywide Real Property Tax Increase

$0.035 across-the-board property tax increase

Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce on May 23 passed a resolution endorsing the lower-end C&I tax for the County, and the higher-end 1-mile Rail tax district rates. Partial text of their resolution is:

Ask MWAA to Drop the PLA... How dare you?

Thank you MWAA, for at least being consistent in a world where so few are. You are like the king we don’t have here in America, and kings do what kings feel like doing, consistently.

Whether MWAA is ignoring Virginia’s Right-to-Work Laws or letting a contract to the highest bidder, MWAA is, as the recent IG audit has confirmed, consistent and that is that. Using a union preference fits perfectly with how they operate. The general public wants to assume there should be some pretense of frugality, but kings aren’t frugal because it is not in their nature.

Think about it. The IG is whining about a round trip air fare of $9,200 for MWAA kings. That is a super deal compared to the rumored $200 million/day for our King-in-Chief to travel to India.

Here is the point. When MWAA decided that adding a $500 million union perk to the amount to be borrowed by MWAA as part of the total cost of the rail project, it is perfectly consistent with MWAA's way of doing business. By the time that amount is financed and interest is added, it will amount to the total revenue of many years of Dulles Toll Road income. But don’t waste your breath complaining because MWAA was audited in 2002 by the GAO and guess what, they were kings back then too. Nothing has changed.

"Stupid Potato"

The Metropolitan Washington Airport Authority consistently has NO adequate checks on how it awards contracts....pays for travel....or checks on the potential conflicts among its members.

Talk about wasteful; hiring a full time IG as has been suggested by Congressman Wolf is wasteful. Would you hire a full time cop to write speeding tickets to diplomats who have diplomatic immunity?

When Congressman Wolf, the DCRA, the IG, the governor, or the Pope tell MWAA what to do... it is a JOKE. MWAA is consistent, they laugh at everyone, they swipe that toll funded credit card to pay for a $200 bottle of wine and a yummy $2000 dinner without a second thought because they are MWAA.

Spending $100’s of thousands extra to hire friends of MWAA is no different than paying $200 for a bottle of wine, so we ought to quit whining and accept our place as subservient cash cows, at least until a real leader rises up and decides to liberate us from this oppression.

"Thank You Toll Road Users"

One last thought is this; I’ll go out on a limb and forecast the obvious. Within two weeks, maybe three, the MWAA Board will meet to announce for the benefit of the Loudoun Supervisors, that the union preference is being dropped.  Just keep in mind that if MWAA decides to revisit the matter in a July meeting, and reinstate the PLA, they will, because they are MWAA.

Tax Pig

Taxpayer advocate

Is GMU Now the Local Source of Obama-Economics?

"Trust me I work for the developers 
and I want to help them you." S.F.

Letter sent to the faculty of the GMU Economics Department

Is GMU Now the Local Source of Obama-Economics?

Will someone at George Mason please help us before we decide on Metro?
This is the headline of the week; “Loudoun County Could Lose Billions Without theSilver Line, Study Says"

Is something fishy going on here? Is GMU now the source of a local version of Obama-Economics, all fluff and no meat? When did GMU faculty start offering guaranteed winning lottery tickets payable sometime in the distant future to local municipal governments? Did someone pardon Bernie Madoff and set him up doing business in the area or what?
I am a resident of Loudoun County, I am furious, and I would like some answers, please. As you may know, Loudoun is under intense pressure to make a decision that involves huge amounts of money, sums that would cause state and federal branches to take pause. This is serious stuff. Enter stage right, compliments of the local rail station land owners, one of your own, the esteemed Dr. Stephen Fuller. Versions of this headline are everywhere and the pressure on Loudoun Supervisors to cash in on this promise is intense.

So I ask you people of the Economics Department of GMU, the peers of Dr. Fuller, ‘Is this a bona fide study’ or a hack job? Would you bank your economic future on this as Fuller is suggesting the taxpayers of Loudoun should do? Fuller himself says that question is a “No brainer.” I guess he thinks the answer to that is more obvious than I do.
Here is some background. Loudoun has in hand a study from the Robert Charles Lesser Co. (RCLCO), a 210 page presentation, 400 pages of appendices. For some reason the RCLCO people made these statements that are difficult to reconcile with the Fuller claims, 

"Nonetheless, RCLCO has not found any credible evidence to indicate that the extension of rail transit brings new development to an entire region.” RCLCO

  “This greater intensity of development at station areas will come at the expense of slower development elsewhere in the county...” RCLCO (Development shifted but not increased).

In a letter dated February 10th, 2012, Dr. Fuller began his lobbying in a letter to Loudoun Chairman, Scott York. He had this to say,  “All the forecasts for the County’s future economic growth include the provision of Metrorail service.” He continues saying, “In the absence of Metrorail service beyond Dulles Airport, these projections are very different. The “with” and “without” differences are more than significant and easily demonstrate what a great public investment this Metrorail extension is.” Stephen FullerI’m not a PhD, but if all the studies you have considered Metrorail service beyond Dulles Airport, how do you define the outcome projections in “without” scenario? I’ll attach a copy of the letter and the questions I sent to Fuller in response to this letter. I’m not holding my breath waiting for a reply. 
Now I’d like to see if I can persuade you folks to feel some of my pain. Your GMU vision statement says this:

GMU will -Nurture and support a highly qualified and entrepreneurial faculty that is excellent at teaching, active in pure and applied research, capable of providing a broad range of intellectual and cultural insights, and responsive to the needs of students and their communities.
GMU will -Maintain an international reputation for superior education and public services that affirms its role as the intellectual and cultural nexus among Northern Virginia, the nation and the world.

The GMU Mission Statement sets the bar pretty high. Will you keep it there?
I will say that Fuller did disclose one of his potential conflicts. His bio page reads like a list of who’s who of businesses and entities that might be in line to directly benefit if Loudoun takes his advice. Likewise, GMU appears to also have Close ties to Cardinal Bank who services the borrowing needs of Comstock Development, a Dulles Rail (proposed) station land owner/developer. GMU should work together with decision makers and businesses in the community, but when it comes to influencing important decisions, credibility is everything. There is a distinct difference between cronyism and corruption, but neither is becoming to an institution that values its good name.

This is a link to Dr. Stephen Fuller’s 14 page “study” from which the spectacular claims that fill local newspaper headlines are taken.http://cra.gmu.edu/pdfs/Loudoun_MetroRail.pdf


I see little in the way of source material, no explanation of assumptions, no methods, no mention of peer review, nothing that would allow others to verify or refute his opinions.


I personally verified that Dr. Fuller did not take into account the ravages that are pending as Dulles Toll Road tolls, the funding source of Dulles Rail, increase so drastically that it will push our local roads past the limit. I doubt Dr. Fuller took into consideration the effect of tax districts that might be established if Loudoun opts in. For that matter, the study has no mention of costs whatsoever, so it is safe to assume that opportunity costs of tying up vast amounts of capital and the effect it will have on the local economy, has not been considered either.


The proponents of the Silver Line have failed to provide a clear and unambiguous picture of the cost to Loudoun County. The Loudoun County Board of Supervisors has been placed in an awkward position of being pro-business and supporting critical infrastructure while facing a muddled and inequitable role as a participant in the Metro system. Will you help them?

Fuller said developers made a $15,000 contribution for his research to George Mason University. "Well, if you don't like the message you shoot the messenger," Fuller said. "Isn't that always the case?" I don’t want to shoot the messenger, but I sure would like to know if GMU is willing to stand behind his message.

Will someone at George Mason please help us before we decide on Metro?Will you look at Fuller’s study and provide an expert opinion on whether this study and its results should overshadow our other forecasts. Or is this a bad joke that needs to be exposed and discredited before its testimony has its intended effect? It just makes sense to resolve this in-house.

David LaRock

Loudoun County Resident

and proud father of a GMU graduate

Fuller Study EXPOSED

Why does Dr. Stephen Fuller talk so much about benefits to Loudoun he attributes to Dulles Rail?

After being pressed for weeks by Loudoun Opt Out, Fuller decided it was time fess up to the public. I spoke with Fuller as he left the Loudoun Chamber members' and politicians' only event where Fuller presented 14 pages of Dulles Rail predictions. He said he was first approached to produce the summary by Maggie Parker who works for Comstock Development, one of the rail station developers. Fuller was also forthcoming with the amount of the check, $15,000., and that it was written by the Claude Moore Foundation, another rail station landowner. Thank you, Dr. Fuller. I hope you can sleep better now.

Metro Math FAILS...It is a Big Loser!

Even Loudoun's Low-ball Estimates Reveal $713 Million Loss on Rail
Note: Based on Loudoun County-released information. Actual costs may double these estimates

Are you listening? Your Taxes WILL go up and stay up to pay for the Metro

Based on the county’s own low-ball guesstimates Metro will cost Loudoun taxpayers $1.2 Billion over the next 28 years.

It will probably be many times more than that amount.

See the full accounting of this black hole of debt spending here.

Please urge Chairman York and Supervisors Clarke, Higgins, Letourneau, Volpe, and Williams to go on-the-record for OPTing OUT. Elected officials can’t commit Loudoun to $1.2 billion in Metro taxes and claim to be ‘fiscal conservatives.’ Ask them why fiscal conservatives favor this kind of BAILOUT.

Don’t just call them once; they need to hear from you once a week until they publicly commit to BAIL on RAIL and avoid this financial disaster!

---

Will Loudoun’s Metro Marriage Go Through?

I need an answer NOW!

Spring is here, romance is in the air, and it would be such a wonderful time to announce that the arranged marriage between Loudoun County and DC Metro will finally happen, and it probably will happen if Loudoun decision makers don’t peek behind the veil before saying, “Yes, I will.” Although the courtship has spanned decades, the moment draws near when Loudoun must choose whether to whisper that final word of acceptance, or denial.

Most people probably know at least a little about Metro, but do we know enough about this persistent suitor? On Wednesday of this week, Metro sat down in Loudoun’s living room to answer some hard questions. Metro ought to be a little uncomfortable because its name has been in the papers quite a bit lately for all the wrong reasons.

You see, Metro appears to have serious character and money problems. Since you, the people of Loudoun, could be part of this marriage, you deserve to know what is going on.

Around 2004, WMATA initiated what was essentially a fund-raising campaign to address an