Is GMU Now the Local Source of Obama-Economics?

"Trust me I work for the developers 
and I want to help them you." S.F.

Letter sent to the faculty of the GMU Economics Department

Is GMU Now the Local Source of Obama-Economics?

Will someone at George Mason please help us before we decide on Metro?
This is the headline of the week; “Loudoun County Could Lose Billions Without theSilver Line, Study Says"

Is something fishy going on here? Is GMU now the source of a local version of Obama-Economics, all fluff and no meat? When did GMU faculty start offering guaranteed winning lottery tickets payable sometime in the distant future to local municipal governments? Did someone pardon Bernie Madoff and set him up doing business in the area or what?
I am a resident of Loudoun County, I am furious, and I would like some answers, please. As you may know, Loudoun is under intense pressure to make a decision that involves huge amounts of money, sums that would cause state and federal branches to take pause. This is serious stuff. Enter stage right, compliments of the local rail station land owners, one of your own, the esteemed Dr. Stephen Fuller. Versions of this headline are everywhere and the pressure on Loudoun Supervisors to cash in on this promise is intense.

So I ask you people of the Economics Department of GMU, the peers of Dr. Fuller, ‘Is this a bona fide study’ or a hack job? Would you bank your economic future on this as Fuller is suggesting the taxpayers of Loudoun should do? Fuller himself says that question is a “No brainer.” I guess he thinks the answer to that is more obvious than I do.
Here is some background. Loudoun has in hand a study from the Robert Charles Lesser Co. (RCLCO), a 210 page presentation, 400 pages of appendices. For some reason the RCLCO people made these statements that are difficult to reconcile with the Fuller claims, 

"Nonetheless, RCLCO has not found any credible evidence to indicate that the extension of rail transit brings new development to an entire region.” RCLCO

  “This greater intensity of development at station areas will come at the expense of slower development elsewhere in the county...” RCLCO (Development shifted but not increased).

In a letter dated February 10th, 2012, Dr. Fuller began his lobbying in a letter to Loudoun Chairman, Scott York. He had this to say,  “All the forecasts for the County’s future economic growth include the provision of Metrorail service.” He continues saying, “In the absence of Metrorail service beyond Dulles Airport, these projections are very different. The “with” and “without” differences are more than significant and easily demonstrate what a great public investment this Metrorail extension is.” Stephen FullerI’m not a PhD, but if all the studies you have considered Metrorail service beyond Dulles Airport, how do you define the outcome projections in “without” scenario? I’ll attach a copy of the letter and the questions I sent to Fuller in response to this letter. I’m not holding my breath waiting for a reply. 
Now I’d like to see if I can persuade you folks to feel some of my pain. Your GMU vision statement says this:

GMU will -Nurture and support a highly qualified and entrepreneurial faculty that is excellent at teaching, active in pure and applied research, capable of providing a broad range of intellectual and cultural insights, and responsive to the needs of students and their communities.
GMU will -Maintain an international reputation for superior education and public services that affirms its role as the intellectual and cultural nexus among Northern Virginia, the nation and the world.

The GMU Mission Statement sets the bar pretty high. Will you keep it there?
I will say that Fuller did disclose one of his potential conflicts. His bio page reads like a list of who’s who of businesses and entities that might be in line to directly benefit if Loudoun takes his advice. Likewise, GMU appears to also have Close ties to Cardinal Bank who services the borrowing needs of Comstock Development, a Dulles Rail (proposed) station land owner/developer. GMU should work together with decision makers and businesses in the community, but when it comes to influencing important decisions, credibility is everything. There is a distinct difference between cronyism and corruption, but neither is becoming to an institution that values its good name.

This is a link to Dr. Stephen Fuller’s 14 page “study” from which the spectacular claims that fill local newspaper headlines are taken.http://cra.gmu.edu/pdfs/Loudoun_MetroRail.pdf


I see little in the way of source material, no explanation of assumptions, no methods, no mention of peer review, nothing that would allow others to verify or refute his opinions.


I personally verified that Dr. Fuller did not take into account the ravages that are pending as Dulles Toll Road tolls, the funding source of Dulles Rail, increase so drastically that it will push our local roads past the limit. I doubt Dr. Fuller took into consideration the effect of tax districts that might be established if Loudoun opts in. For that matter, the study has no mention of costs whatsoever, so it is safe to assume that opportunity costs of tying up vast amounts of capital and the effect it will have on the local economy, has not been considered either.


The proponents of the Silver Line have failed to provide a clear and unambiguous picture of the cost to Loudoun County. The Loudoun County Board of Supervisors has been placed in an awkward position of being pro-business and supporting critical infrastructure while facing a muddled and inequitable role as a participant in the Metro system. Will you help them?

Fuller said developers made a $15,000 contribution for his research to George Mason University. "Well, if you don't like the message you shoot the messenger," Fuller said. "Isn't that always the case?" I don’t want to shoot the messenger, but I sure would like to know if GMU is willing to stand behind his message.

Will someone at George Mason please help us before we decide on Metro?Will you look at Fuller’s study and provide an expert opinion on whether this study and its results should overshadow our other forecasts. Or is this a bad joke that needs to be exposed and discredited before its testimony has its intended effect? It just makes sense to resolve this in-house.

David LaRock

Loudoun County Resident

and proud father of a GMU graduate

Wake up Loudoun, you may be next!

Loudoun County Board of Supervisors

"Who Do You Serve?"

 Please read the article below. It paints a pretty clear picture of how big business interests in Tysons Corners milked the taxpayer for every nickel they could. Like it or not, that's how the game is played, because some businessmen are shrewd people who know how to make money the easy way.
How?  They just keep the campaign contributions, empty promises and press releases rolling, making sure the politicians are there to sign on the dotted line when it's time to close the deal.
If there is any doubt that rail is a financial scam that will roll right over trusting citizens, putting them deeper in debt while the winners take all, then look again. Just follow the money.

Sheep paying unfunded Costs - Reston Times 9-28-05

This is a portrait of a scam: The developer wants rail to come past his land so the value will soar. Business people think maybe some mega-bucks will spin off to them. Developer steps up and says I'll kick in 25 percent of the cost out of the kindness of my heart, BUT, the fine print says they will only pay a puny pitance of the actual costs. The developers share is fixed, and the taxpayers pay the rest. And know this; Big-Dig-No-Bid-Design-As-You-Go-Bechtel will bleed the job until there is nothing left.
Rail to Dulles and Loudoun is a scam. Face it, they win, we lose. The wheelin' dealin' developers just keep telling our local boys what a sweet dealio this rail thing is.

"I'm telling you son, a guy that works with us to make this happen will really look smart. This will be your county's key to the future, bla, bla, bla." The public is just too out of touch to see the big picture.

This looks and smells like a taxpayer funded stimulus for the business community...because it is.
Question to Loudoun Supervisors:

"Who do you serve?"

David LaRock
Hamilton Virginia

Best All Time Great Rail to Loudoun Quotes

Rail, in their own words...

Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R), who also addressed chamber of commerce members Jan. 25 in Richmond, said he opposes the Metrorail project's second phase because it is a "boondoggle." According to projections made for eight sample trips, half of them would be no faster than driving, he said.
"It is a real estate deal, not a transportation project,"

Former Virginia congressman and vice chairman of the MWAA board Tom Davis:
September 19, 2011  Davis: Phase 2 Will Bring Higher Density, Higher Tolls to Reston
"There are three certainties about Phase 2," said Davis, a member of the Metropolitan Washington Airport Authority (MWAA) board. "It will bring higher density and higher tolls, and the county will have higher operating expenses.
"We are working to keep tolls as low as possible," he said. "No one can tell you with a straight face what the tolls may be."
Phase 2 is not getting federal money. About one-quarter of the price tag - which officials are trying to keep at $2.5 billion - will be paid for by Fairfax and Loudoun Counties and MWAA. The rest will come from Toll Road users, which has some people predicting tolls of $10 to $20. (one way)

"At the end of the day, I would bet my house that this will get done," said Davis.
Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli,
"According to projections made for eight sample trips, half of them would be no faster than driving..." he said.
“It is a real estate deal, not a transportation project..."

Longtime Fairfax County developer Til Hazel,
September 19, 2011
 said, at the (Biznow) conference, figuring out who is going to pay is a paramount issue.
"It's not being addressed by the political sector," he said. "It needs to be addressed much more than this enthusiastic 'we are going to build a train to Dulles!' Everyone says 'tolls will pay for it.' That is absolute nonsense."  

MWAA Board member, Robert Clarke BrownMr. Brown said
SPECIAL BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEETING on page 3
Minutes of November 16, 2011
  ... he was grateful that Secretary LaHood had convened the
group and forced the parties to sit down and work out the issues. He
had long been a supporter of the rail project, as had Ms. Reiley. He was
fully supportive of the project. He was, however, disappointed with the
outcome after four months of negotiation. He had hoped that the
process would identify additional funding sources. He had thought the
MOA negotiation would have provided a forum to do so, and was
disappointed it had not. In four months, there had not been any
progress in reducing tolls. In fact, there had been some backsliding from
July.

Chairman York's Board of Supervisors Reports
4-01-2011
The Loudoun Board of Supervisors remains extremely concerned with the escalation of the project costs associated with Dulles Phase 2 Metrorail. In September 2010, MWAA announced that the project costs had escalated from $2.5 billion at the 65% design stage to $3.8 billion at the 80% design stage—a 52% increase.
 ...Fairfax County’s share stands at approximately 17.2% for Phase 2 only. However, our 8.3% share equates to hundreds of millions of dollars as evidenced by Loudoun’s estimated project share costs increasing from $240 million at beginning design to nearly $316 million at the 80% design stage—a nearly 32% increase. Furthermore, approximately 67% of the entire funding stream for the Dulles Phase 2 Metrorail will be obtained through tolls on the Dulles Toll Road by MWAA. Loudoun County believes that approximately 40 to 50% of motorists on this toll road are Loudoun County residents. 
November 16, 2011
Loudoun got everything it wanted in the latest agreement, according to Loudoun County Board chair Scott York. "This was about reducing the scope of the project, in terms of the dollars," he says.

MWAA Board member Bob Brown
6:40 PM, Nov 16, 2011
The cost of the rail project itself has been brought down a billion dollars to $2. 8 billion. The other billion hasn't gone away... it's just moved, as board member Bob Brown explained, "The project scope wasn't changed, nothing was reduced, it just got pushed off to the counties." watch the video here at the 1:00 mark
Brown predicted that tolls could climb to $16.75 per trip in a few decades, compared with $2 now, as a 2009 study also showed.

 Jim Burton, Former Loudoun County Supervisor,
The Blue Ridge District
from Jim Burton's website
But board member Jim Burton, one of the two opposing votes, says the funding still depends far too much on rising Dulles toll road revenues, which will mean more commuters looking for non-tolled roads.
"They will drop off the toll road, saturate our side roads, and we'll be left with some other way to try to bail out financially," Burton says.
Burton served on: •Finance/Government Services and Operations Committee. Served on this committee for 15 out of the past 16 years, serving as Chair from 2000 to 2004 and from 2007 to 2011. During my term on the committee, the County’s bond rating increased from Aa to Aa+ to AAA•Fiscal Impact Committee Chairman


Nick Samuels, Moody’s lead analyst for Virginia
Moody’s moved Virginia and all municipalities with a AAA rating — the highest possible rating — to a “negative” outlook in August
Dec. 9, 2011
“Virginia’s reliance on federal employment and the federal economy as a percentage of its GDP is significantly higher than the national average,”


Patrick Forrest, Republican candidate
Posted on Wed, 2011-09-07
The $17 (toll) number comes from an MWAA powerpoint presentation to USDOT July 11, 2011 that has surfaced recently.
Patrick Forrest the Republican candidate says he "completely supports" the rail project but that $17 tolls are "completely unacceptable." They will harm the economic viability of the region, congest side streets, and cost the average commuter $7,000/year. "It is a recipe to run business and jobs out of town," he says in a political ad, urging support for the petition against $17 tolls.
Another source for the $17 round trip toll is MWAA's finance chairman Robert Brown who wrote in a Washington Post opinion piece that these tolls would be needed by 2040. He said a "double digit toll" would be needed within ten years of the rail line opening.

Tony Howard, President & CEO Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce
In a July 5 Letter to the Editor----Given that 90 percent of Phase 2 of the Dulles Rail Project is funded by Virginia's taxpayers, commuters and businesses, I can not fathom why a Loudoun Supervisor would support this type of discriminatory treatment against Virginia's contractors and construction workers.
Consistently voted the top state in the nation to do business, Virginia enjoys this reputation in part because of our "Right to Work" laws that prohibit forcing an individual to join a labor union just to keep their job.
A mandated PLA on Phase 2 is completely contrary to these and other policies that have given Loudoun County an unemployment rate that is now below 4 percent, compared with double-digit unemployment that reigns in much of the country. There should be no confusion about that.

Virginia Delegate Bob Marshall
from Bob's website
 Virginia officials, including then Governor Kaine, ignored a 2002 US Government Accountability Office report highly critical of MWAA’s secretive contracting practices and cost overruns.  GAO questioned “whether the Authority obtained the best value in the marketplace for the goods and services that the Authority acquired through contracts.”
Of $408 million in contracts examined by GAO, MWAA failed to obtain open competition for 15 of 35 contracts.  GAO said because MWAA fails to apply “generally recognized principles underlying the concept of full and open competition,” this “could convey an appearance of favoritism in its contracting decisions.” GAO’s review was severely limited because MWAA “did not have a centralized database of its concession contracts or documented procedures for awarding these contracts.” Also, since MWAA has refused to even comment on the GAO’s corrective procurement suggestions, GAO said MWAA would be reluctant on its own to correct the procurement problems: “This is particularly troublesome given that the Authority recently embarked upon a multibillion- dollar construction program at Dulles.”  And this was before the multibillion dollar VDOT-MWAA memo signed March 24.
How can this happen?   MWAA is a creation of Maryland, Virginia, Washington DC, and the federal government.

Frank Wolf   Member of Congress
from his website
 Fighting these straightforward and bipartisan changes to the board not only adds to MWAA's expenses, but continues what a recent Washington Post editorial said is "a virtuoso display of tone-deaf politics, at least partly as a result of the lack of accountability by the unelected, 13-member board that sets policy for the authority."

 I urge the board to immediately accept the changes in PL 112-55 so the region can once again have confidence that the airports and the Dulles Rail project have sound management.

Thursday, February 24, 2005
Joe May opposes implicit tax
(before going along with tansfer of Dulles Toll Road to MWAA)
May is chairman of the House of Delegates Transportation Appropriations subcommittee and has senior standing on the Transportation Committee.
"What VDOT and the Commonwealth Transportation Board are proposing for commuters on the Dulles Toll Road is, in reality, not a fee increase but an implicit tax increase," May wrote. "They are attempting to impose this tax while avoiding substantive public debate and preventing elected officials from going on the record."

John Locke
 "MEN being,..by Nature, all free, equal, and independent no one can be put out of this Estate, and subjected to the political Power of another, without his own  Consent. The only Way whereby any one devests himself of (gives up) his natural Liberty, and puts on the Bonds of  civil Society is by agreeing with other Men to joyn and unite into a Community, for their comfortable, safe, and peaceable Living one amongst another, in a secure Enjoyment of their Properties, and a greater Security against any, that are not of It."


Thanks for the candor gentlemen.

David LaRock
Hamilton, Virginia

Rail to Loudoun-Just build that big shiny choo choo train!

"Just build that big shiny choo choo train and then find out what's in it for you"

In the time I spend studying Rail to Dulles and Beyond, I am amazed at how weak the answers are to the why, when, how, and how much questions. In fact, the whole pro-rail push offers very little real information, say in the form of a feasibility study or ridership study. The MWAA team must have learned a while back when they commissioned an Environmental Impact Study in 2004 that showed how utterly worthless rail would be as a remedy for traffic congestion, that facts were better kept behind closed doors. This whole situation reminds me of the Nancy Pelosi advice on Obamacare; just pass it and then find out what's in there... you know, like a grab bag gift.

Believe it or not, our leaders are being lobbied with talk that sounds a bit like extortion or at least distortion to me. They ask, "Why not bring Loudoun into the Rail scheme, because if Loudoun opts out, DTR tolls will be even higher?" A fitting answer might be something like, "Because even if opting out meant a dollar or two more in tolls, staying in would not be worth a lifetime of financial bondage to Metro, feeding the money black hole named WMATA (Metro)." In fact the question is built on the premise that there is not a good choice open to Loudoun. There is! Opt out of Phase II, let them bring the rail to the airport, and pay $0...net savings, billions, tolls would not be affected.

Just lately, as I seemed to be getting a grasp of how outrageous this rail construction thing is, along comes the realization that the rail issue is not just about construction of rail, it also includes long term money commitments to WMATA (Metro's overseers).

"How do people get themselves into these messes?" Whether it is MWAA controlling the Toll Road or WMATA tapping into Loudoun for a lifetime subsidy fix,it all starts when somebody messes up big time and signs off on these wretched deals.

The kicker is that good guys like Delegate Joe May smelled the rat ahead of time with the Dulles Toll Road. He knew that in principle, something was wrong.

In 2005, Joe May certainly grasped the inequity of tolls being an implicit tax and spoke out against it...until he decided to go along with it. In 2005, one year before he supported the transfer to MWAA, he opposed tolls, calling them an implicit tax. Why then did he change his song and start favoring the idea of turning over the DTR to MWAA to use those tolls or taxes, to finance rail?

from connection news 2005:

 Del. Joe T. May  voiced his dissent in a letter to Whittington Clement, Commonwealth  Transportation Secretary and chairman of the Commonwealth Transportation  Board.
"What VDOT and the Commonwealth Transportation Board are proposing for  commuters on the Dulles Toll Road is, in reality, not a fee increase but an  implicit tax increase," May wrote. "They are attempting to impose this tax while  avoiding substantive public debate and preventing elected officials from going  on the record."
http://www.connectionnewspapers.com/article.asp?article=246861&paper=67&cat=104

Tim Kaine could have made the DTR a free road as promised, he instead, turned the DTR over to MWAA to redistribute the tolls from Va commuters to build a train they (the commuters) would,in all likelihood,never use. Tim's shortsighted decision led to what we have now, the threat of a $30 round trip Leesburg to DC.

The point is this; another wrong turn will not make it right. If we (Loudoun) buy into rail to save a few bucks on tolls, we are  forever 'in' as shareholders in a broke, rundown, underfunded, union run, and underused transit mode. Why? Just to have an excuse to give away some density and stimulate development that would happen with or without rail, if at all (this is another popular false justification).

Joe May probably had a slick lobbyist explain to him why he should just go along with it, even though Joe knew deep down it was bad for his constituents. Joe did it anyway and he can never change that. Unfortunately, we will pay for it until we have a strong enough governor to undo it. If Joe had stood on principle with those opposing the transfer, others would have joined him, and just maybe we would not be where we are.

At least the price of building rail is a finite amount that in 30 years would be paid off, but buy-in to WMATA, that is a different scale of mistake,its forever.

David LaRock
Hamilton, Virginia

“Good bye $150 million dollars”, “Hello to $17 tolls”

Governor McDonnell, on the Friday before New Years weekend, signed off on Dulles Rail, making it final, unless the General Assembly decides not to play along.

Washington Post article 

"Virginia Gov. Robert F. McDonnell (R) approved a deal Friday to help pay for the $2.8 billion second phase of the Dulles Metrorail line..." 

Why the RINO move?

Historians will be hard put to explain why politicians in the 21st century wanted to pour so much money into mostly 19th century rail technology that, in urban areas, operates at 25 mph at best.

...hard put unless the historians look at what ulterior motives exist. Virginians ought to be asking how Tysons and Dulles Corridor landowners have acquired so much influence with Governor McDonnell and other local politicians.

Recently elected Republican governors around the country have blown the whistle on wasteful passenger rail projects.

Will Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell join them, or will he let the Dulles Rail train wreck run over his conservative credentials?

This Dulles Rail scheme is not a complicated one. But will it can have a happy ending in spite of all the effort to ensure this "Doomed to Fail" project goes through? 

Dulles Rail is worse than a complete waste of money. It is a financial boondoggle of higher taxes, soaring tolls and worsening traffic...a payoff to union bosses, influential donors and rich developers. The good news is, it’s not too late for Fairfax, Loudoun and Virginia to say, “Opt Out” and save billions.
Bob McDonnell should liberate the Dulles corridor from the schemes of Tysons Corner property owners who have already been rewarded with huge profit windfalls. Virginia Transportation Secretary Sean Connaughton and Governor McDonnell bent over backwards and did triple somersaults to keep the tolls for the new Portsmouth Tunnel, now being built, below $2.  Contrast that to the $17 tolls that will force Toll Road users back onto overcrowded roads  along the Dulles Corridor.

Governor McDonnell should rescind the unconstitutional transfer of the Dulles Toll Road to the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority and revoke its unauthorized implicit taxing authority. It would be an easy decision.

If Metrorail riders want Dulles Rail, let them pay the majority of its capital and operating costs at the fare box. If developers want rail and the increased development potential that comes with it, let them pay.

How bad is this project?

Consider the key findings of WMAA’s 2004 report to USDOT:

§  By the project’s completion in 2025, traffic volumes on the ten highway links in the corridor would be reduced by only 1.5 percent compared to levels that would occur without the extension.

§  This negligible gain in traffic relief would be erased by 2027, given projected traffic growth rates. In effect, an estimated $6 billion (in current dollars) would be spent for two years of trivial traffic relief.

To put this in perspective, the Heritage Foundation estimated that the cost per new rider attracted from a car (daily rider annualized) exceeds $15,000. That is enough to lease each new Dulles rail transit rider two BMW 328i convertibles for life and still return a few thousand dollars back to the taxpayer. By this measure, the Dulles extension would be one of the most expensive new transit projects ever conceived.

The Dulles Metrorail extension will incur $22 billion in life cycle costs for planning, construction, financing and operation during the next 40 years. This amount is similar to the most recent cost estimates for Boston's infamous "Big Dig."

How these mega-projects are sold to trusting people is an outrage. Two New Studies show a pattern of bias against transportation modes such as buses and a pattern of distorting rail budgets and projections to sell rail to the public.

And the PLA scheme, “what a doozie.” You would think the idea of asking Virginia taxpayers and commuters to pay for jobs that are likely to be handed over to out-of-state union shops, would outrage Governor McDonnell who still promotes the importance of jobs as he did throughout his campaign. Bob McDonnell just isn’t talking about how the PLA will add hundreds of millions to the overall price tag of this project, money that would be picked from the pockets of commuters and taxpayers.

In this same Washington Post article Scott York,  Republican Chairman of the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors is quoted as saying,

…the governor had “every right to force the issue” on the project’s labor agreement…”

Rest assured that Loudoun County will not be sold out on the PLA issue, because Back in May 2011, York had this to say about ther PLA,

“I’m not going to be in position of telling those folks from Loudoun County … that they have to have union labor,”

Chairman Scott York and Governor McDonnell have a responsibility to block the move to employ a  PLA which diverts Virginia money into a Stimulus Program for Maryland Unions, or better yet, please block the whole Phase 2.

David LaRock

Hamilton Virginia

Getting Virginia moving (forward) again - not from Governor Bob McDonnell

Happy New Year to you, Governor McDonnell, and best of luck on your future endeavors. Here is an inspirational quote that brought you to mind.

"I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind."  Grover Cleveland

Dear Governor McDonnell,

I received your “Getting Virginia moving again” email and see it is full of great ideas, “Way to go.” As your time allows, help me understand a few things which I find difficult to square with your ideas for “Getting Virginia moving again.”

This clear statement from your email stood out as I read it,

“..we have been hard at work putting this new money to use efficiently and effectively in every region of the state...” 

Will this be the vision for next year as well? I wonder because I did not see any mention of the Dulles Rail mega-project that is going on near my home in Loudoun County. Some local folks say this will be the “economic engine” that powers Loudoun's future.  Your email referenced other projects that would “help spur critical economic development and job creation in some of the areas hardest hit by the economic recession.” Given that Rail to Dulles and Loudoun is the biggest transportation project in the history of the Commonwealth, it seems like it ought to have a spot on your short list  and maybe qualify for a lot more than the $150M you have committed. What’s up with this?

Another concern I have is with a rumor that is circulating that says the Commonwealth caved on its position in regard to the Project Labor Agreement (PLA) and that the PLA is really a payment on an IOU to unions that would raise the price of the rail project by hundreds of millions. If this pay-off is in there by any name, it would be paid for with a check written on the accounts of your constituents who use the Dulles Toll Road and pay state and local taxes. I’m coming to you, Governor, because I remember from your campaign, that you know how important jobs are to Virginia's economic recovery; Right?

Sorry to talk about rumors so much, but here is another one going around that you should know about. It appears to have been started by The Federal Transit Administration who rejected funding Dulles Rail Phase 2 previously due to low forecast ridership. They said the rail project service area has less than half the population density stipulated by Federal and State government standards to meet minimum economically viable heavy rail ridership demand. Did this slip past you Governor?

Also, may I be so bold as to suggest you address another issue to put us all at ease? There seems to be a growing concern that VDOT has inadequate money to finance repairs to existing roads, and very little to pay for road expansion.  VDOT wants counties and cities to finance repairs on secondary roads. Congested roads in Virginia are not being budgeted for expansion. A subsidy for Phase 2 of the Dulles Rail removes more money for maintenance and road expansions. We have more than enough money, don’t we sir?

As I’m sure you know, some are saying Dulles Rail is our own local “Big Dig.” I came across this great video and this article  that I think you ought to see. Massachusetts apparently got sucked into a big project and it is a doozie. I understand that their Big Dig has put a crushing weight on the financial condition of the state of Massachusetts.  I am very concerned that if a $22B project can crush a state financially, what will it do to our local economy? Our local cost burden is about 77% of a less-than-half-done-project that has a price tag north of $7B (capital costs only) plus many times that when one looks a interest and overhead. Am I right that you would not buy into a project that has a high probability of bankrupting our local community?

Here’s what happened when leadership lost sight of reality in Massachusetts:

Boston Globe article: Cost spirals to $22b; crushing debt side tracks other work, pushes agency toward insolvency

"The Big Dig saddled us with costs we can't afford," said Bernard Cohen, secretary of transportation. "We are grappling with that legacy now. There are no easy answers."

Contrary to the popular belief that this was a project heavily subsidized by the federal government, 73 percent of construction costs were paid by Massachusetts drivers and taxpayers.

Big Dig payments have already sucked maintenance and repair money away from deteriorating roads and bridges across the state, forcing the state to float more highway bonds and to go even deeper into the hole.

Among other signs of financial trouble: The state is paying almost 80 percent of its highway workers with borrowed money; the crushing costs of debt have pushed the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority, which manages the Big Dig, to the brink of insolvency; and Massachusetts spends a higher percentage of its highway budget on debt than any other state.

Across the state, commuters are suffering daily for the massive shortfalls that have led to closings and stalled projects.
"The Big Dig drained funding away," Cohen said. "I can't tell you exactly how much, but it's been in the billions of dollars."

In closing Governor McDonnell, I trust you will address all these concerns and make farsighted decisions on Dulles Rail and other spending. I know this because your email also said,

“The condition of the Commonwealth’s transportation infrastructure is fundamentally linked to the strength of our economy and future economic growth, opportunity and prosperity  ... we will continue conceiving and implementing common-sense solutions  to ease traffic congestion, strengthen our economy, and get more of our fellow Virginians back to work.”

Happy New Year Governor,

David LaRock
Hamilton, Virginia

PS-  Delegate Bob Marshall and Senator–elect Dick Black seem to think that it is not wise to entrust $150 million dollars of Virginia money to MWAA unless they allow open audit and have FIOA access to their books, what do you think?

"Fairfax already made its mistake, maybe Loudoun can be stopped"...Ken Cuccinelli

Pictured below are representatives of Dulles Gateway Associates, West Dulles Properties and the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, waiting patiently.

Leesburg Today apparently asked some of the big playas in this Dulles Rail and Eastern Loudoun development  scheme for some insights on what they are hoping for. It is a pretty long and boring article, but if you read between the lines you can get the picture. The developers are pumping up a glitzy vision of pack-em and stack-em  development near rail stations, to entice the political people to buy-in (with our money of course). Neither side is talking enough about what we, the people of Loudoun, will get out of this grand scheme? Don't get me wrong, these guys must be some really sharp people, but unless the public reps employ some hard analysis, we may be left looking like roadkill as this transit/development project rolls right on over us.

Now let’s be clear here, I’m not a planner, a politician, a CEO, or a wealthy developer.  I am an average taxpayer with a few simple questions that I would really like to have answered before Loudoun jumps off the exact same cliff that our neighbors to the east, Fairfax, have.

In this Leesburg Today article, there is a lot of visionary sounding chat among these "rail supporters", but I ask, have our representatives even done a feasibility study that justifies this mega-vision and is there some hope of an economic payback  to the County, from all this Profit Induced Development? Could it be that support is not based on a selfless desire to promote the best interests of Loudoun County?

I’m wondering, because when I attended the Loudoun Board meeting in mid-November when they voted on the MOA thing, I heard county staff inform the current board members that this rail scheme would yield NO net revenue for 30 years.  Add this thought to the the 30 year timeline; most rail forecast are extremely exaggerated. So just maybe that 30 year mark would be 40, 50, or 60 years, or never. That would make this project a muti-billion dollar "Ooops!", for Loudoun.

Second question, do you really call something that will raise taxes, raise tolls and force lots of people back into traffic, an investment?  

Third question, have you read the 185 page Fiscal Impact Analysis. Page 40  says total income over 40 years will be just under $600M. The Loudoun contribution to maintenance of the Metro will be about $1B for the same period, the capital cost to build 2 stations will be +-$300M, and you have taken on building parking garages. Is there a magic formula to come up with the missing money, or do we call that a loss, and how about the cost to borrow all this loot, especially if Loudoun gets booted to below a AAA bond rating? Again, you are the experts, I’m just asking.

Last question, have you ever looked closely at how this rail project has impacted Fairfax, and how a similar super-expensive speculative project managed by No-Bid-Big Dig-Bechtel, (Phase 1 prime contractor), impacted that community?

Please do, because vision is great, but we also need some serious analysis.

 From 11/03/09 Washington Examiner, Barbara Hollingsworth: Walter Alcorn, vice chairman of Fairfax County's Planning Commission, finally conceded last week that turning suburban car-centric Tysons Corner into the Virginia version of downtown Manhattan is going to take some serious cash -- at least $15 billion for roads, sidewalks, overpasses and feeder buses necessary to make Phase 1 of the Dulles Rail project a success.

That's in addition to the $18 billion collected from drivers on the Dulles Toll Road for construction and interest for Phase 2 over the next 40 years, according to the Metropolitan Washington Airport Authority's August 2009 bond prospectus, and $4 billion ($100 million annually) in operating subsidies.

We're already up to $37 billion, and "Big Dig" Bechtel hasn't even had a chance to tack on its customary cost overruns, so let's round it up to an even $40 billion for a project that taxpayers were told in 2002 was supposed to cost no more than $4.1 billion ($1.5 billion for Phase 1 and $2.4 billion for Phase 2).

The price tag for Dulles Rail is now ten times what it was just seven years ago.

Ken Cuccinelli said, “This is a huge opportunity to stop an outrageous project that will be a rolling fiscal disaster for Loudoun for years to come.  Fairfax already made its mistake, maybe Loudoun can be stopped before driving off the cliff too.”

posted by David LaRock

Virginia’s Big Dig-Rail-to-Dulles Story is Huge

You can help stop the
Virginia Rail Big Dig by contacting your county supervisor and your state representatives

click here for contact info 

Hello citizens of Virginia,

It’s been a few weeks since we updated you to let you know about how Election Day polls showed the growing majority of support for getting Loudoun County out of what Attorney General calls a “financial boondoggle.”

How big is this project, people ask? In fact this project is so big, so expensive, and so out of control, we are renaming it “Virginia’s Big Dig.” It started out with a cost estimate of $1.9 billion in 2000 and is presently pushing $7 billion. That is really no surpise when you consider Bechtel is the contractor for the original Big Dig and now for Virginia's Big Dig. They, Bechtel, design it as they go and have a no-bid contract. Sweet deal for them as they play and we pay! 

 “It is a story about the power of government to commandeer billions of dollars of resources from taxpayers and to shower private-sector interests with billions of dollars in engineering contracts, construction contracts, bond deals and development opportunities.” says blogger Jim Bacon of Bacon’s Rebellion

Thomas Cranmer, an economist from Fairfax, put together this summary of issues with Phase 2 of the "Virginia Big Dig" sometimes called Rail to Dulles and Loudoun.  Read more here

Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli says that it should be killed and calls it an "economic boondoggle" the state doesn't need.

"It's just not worth it," Cuccinelli said in a recent appearance on WMAL radio. "It's a rip-off."

Cuccinelli also took issue with the airports authority's decision to pursue a union-friendly labor agreement for Phase 2. Virginia is a right-to-work state, meaning that union membership is not required to secure a job. The contractor, Dulles Transit Partners, voluntarily adopted a similar labor agreement for the project's first phase. Read More Here

How these mega-projects are sold to trusting people is an outrage. Two New Studies show a pattern of bias against transportation modes such as buses and a pattern of distorting rail budgets and projections to sell rail to the public. All this seems to be part of the effort to keep the hype up on rail, which is a far more expensive transit option than buses. The results often leave taxpayers stuck with far more dept than was promised, as with the Big Dig.

Dulles Toll Corridor prime example of bias & mis-selection Read More Here

Cited as an example of rigged selection against bus is the Dulles Toll Road corridor where an approximate $6 billion rail transit line is currently under construction, the financing being heavily based on toll revenue bonds.

Scholars have also found that it can be politically rewarding to lie about the costs and benefits of a project

Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University says, "Unfortunately, studies (see page 4) have shown that project promoters routinely ignore, hide, or otherwise leave out important project costs and risks to make total costs appear lower. Researchers refer to this as the “planning fallacy” or the “optimism bias.” Scholars have also found that it can be politically rewarding to lie about the costs and benefits of a project. The data show that the political process is more likely to give funding to managers who underestimate the costs and overestimate the benefits. In other words, it is not the best projects that get implemented but the ones that look the best on paper." she also said, "...9 out of 10 rail projects overestimate the actual traffic. Moreover, 84 percent of rail-passenger forecasts are wrong by more than 20 percent. Thus, for rail, passenger traffic averages 51.4 percent less than estimated traffic. This means that there is a systematic tendency to overestimate rail revenues."

Senator Richard Black and Delegate Bob Marshall


Propose Legislation Efforts are underway by Virginia Delegates and Senators to block handing over any money to MWAA for rail unless they back-off their insistence on importing union labor, and they are demanding MWAA submit to open audit and FOIA laws.
Robert G. Marshall, R-Manassas, has filed a bill to prohibit the use of state revenues for construction of Phase 2 of the Dulles Corridor Metrorail project unless the project meets three transparency standards. Senator-elect Dick Black R-Prince William, Loudoun submitted a companion bill.

This is where we are headed if people do not speak up.

Commuters get stuck in traffic and pay $17 tolls each way by 2020, while a few rail users will get an almost free ride.

Drivers will vote with their routes and clog nearby roads but they will still pay one way or another.

Rail stations generate far more traffic than they eliminate, which in turn requires more expensive road upgrades.

Construction jobs go out of state with the PLA-like terms that are part of the union payoff favored by the MWAA board.

Virginia may or may  choose not to participate financially in this project that will send jobs to out of state union halls in defiance of its right to work laws and at a time when jobs are precious. Keep in mind the money to pay for those jobs, and the cost of the project overall is coming out of the pockets of Virginia taxpayers and commuters.

Local budgets will be forced to deal with competing interests if local communities are strapped with massive capital costs and a share of maintaining the aging Metro fleet. The estimated annual  maintenance cost share for Loudoun is forecast to be $33 million which is about $25million more than it will take in annually. And those costs will likely climb if they are based on deliberately inaccurate projections.

Schools and other programs will suffer as they compete for a limited amount of local and state money.

You can help stop the Virginia Rail Big Dig by contacting your county supervisor and your state representatives and writing letters to editors

David LaRock

Hamilton Virginia

representatives contact info