Thursday, July 5, 2012



I believe we at Opt Out had the pro-Metro people scrambling right down to the wire and that whatever they had to offer Ken Reid was huge. A year ago their expectation was that this BAILOUT would sail through, and with a little flim flamery most of the questions would never be asked, the taxpayers would be appointed the cash cows, and the business community would keep buying the cooperation they need with campaign donations.

Well people are not thrilled with what they are seeing even before the cold Metro reality hits. Here are a few things to watch for. Knowing a little allows you to spot the tricks. We will keep updating the list. 

Costs will escalate 

Because no cost caps were negotiated, MWAA has a blank check. An inside source says the extra cost total has been hidden and that it is now around $400 million. That translates to $20 million added to Loudoun before Phase 2 design is complete or construction begins.

Purple Amoeba (PA) - Shawn Williams Tax District 

May not meet the criteria of enabling legislation, ie, population, spending PA tax revenue outside the district where it is collected, approval by landowners, etc., so it may never happen.

PA will not produce enough money to fund the capital, maintenance and overhead costs.

The PA $.20 cap limits the exposure of PA landowners, leaving the door wide open for costs not covered to be dumped on taxpayers and businesses across the County.

The idea of there being 3 districts within the PA allows Loudoun to arbitrarily favor or penalize the participants who cooperate or don't cooperate with the crony system, and will allow Loudoun to juggle assessments to protect certain favored PA land owners.

PA will cause tax avoidance as businesses move outside the district.

General and Commercial Industrial Taxes

These are likely to kick in after the PA fails and is forgotten. Who pays, people or businesses, depends on who screams the most or least.

Some businesses will move outside the county.

Traffic will get very bad . . .

As station area construction kicks into gear and strains the incomplete road networks.

As countywide improvements are de-prioritized

As soaring Dulles Toll Road (DTR) tolls push tens of thousands of drivers back onto clogged roads.

Buses will be phased out in an attempt to boost ridership on shiny Metro trains.

Promises of proffered road improvements may or may not materialize.

MWAA bonds . . . 

Should be considered junk bonds given unreliable ridership data and exaggerated revenue stream from DTR.

Bond sellers should disclose that the DTR tolling authority is being challenged in a Federal court.

Loudoun and Fairfax are likely to be the default guarantors in the event of any MWAA failures.

Long Term Fail will occur . . .

As projected revenue may not meet projected levels

As Metro attempts to apportion costs to rebuild the entire failing system.

Schools, roads and other needs will increase with the new station area development. New residents will scream for more spending, and they will get it.

The overall capacity of the Metro system has been reached prior to expanding to include the Silver Line.  Rush plus is cutting back service in minority neighborhoods attempting to free up capacity for affluent suburban neighborhoods, i.e., in Loudoun and Fairfax.

Can we rethink this, please?
Fairfaxing Loudoun

The need for more tax revenue will force opening up development in transition zones and rural areas west of the airport.

Bottom Line

Metro is a Crap Deal. Opt Out screamed this for months, and the Blank Check Boys ignored it. Now Loudoun will bleed money to feed the MWAA and WMATA machines forever.

David LaRock

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