Wake up Loudoun, you may be next!

Loudoun County Board of Supervisors

"Who Do You Serve?"

 Please read the article below. It paints a pretty clear picture of how big business interests in Tysons Corners milked the taxpayer for every nickel they could. Like it or not, that's how the game is played, because some businessmen are shrewd people who know how to make money the easy way.
How?  They just keep the campaign contributions, empty promises and press releases rolling, making sure the politicians are there to sign on the dotted line when it's time to close the deal.
If there is any doubt that rail is a financial scam that will roll right over trusting citizens, putting them deeper in debt while the winners take all, then look again. Just follow the money.

Sheep paying unfunded Costs - Reston Times 9-28-05

This is a portrait of a scam: The developer wants rail to come past his land so the value will soar. Business people think maybe some mega-bucks will spin off to them. Developer steps up and says I'll kick in 25 percent of the cost out of the kindness of my heart, BUT, the fine print says they will only pay a puny pitance of the actual costs. The developers share is fixed, and the taxpayers pay the rest. And know this; Big-Dig-No-Bid-Design-As-You-Go-Bechtel will bleed the job until there is nothing left.
Rail to Dulles and Loudoun is a scam. Face it, they win, we lose. The wheelin' dealin' developers just keep telling our local boys what a sweet dealio this rail thing is.

"I'm telling you son, a guy that works with us to make this happen will really look smart. This will be your county's key to the future, bla, bla, bla." The public is just too out of touch to see the big picture.

This looks and smells like a taxpayer funded stimulus for the business community...because it is.
Question to Loudoun Supervisors:

"Who do you serve?"

David LaRock
Hamilton Virginia

Getting Virginia moving (forward) again - not from Governor Bob McDonnell

Happy New Year to you, Governor McDonnell, and best of luck on your future endeavors. Here is an inspirational quote that brought you to mind.

"I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind."  Grover Cleveland

Dear Governor McDonnell,

I received your “Getting Virginia moving again” email and see it is full of great ideas, “Way to go.” As your time allows, help me understand a few things which I find difficult to square with your ideas for “Getting Virginia moving again.”

This clear statement from your email stood out as I read it,

“..we have been hard at work putting this new money to use efficiently and effectively in every region of the state...” 

Will this be the vision for next year as well? I wonder because I did not see any mention of the Dulles Rail mega-project that is going on near my home in Loudoun County. Some local folks say this will be the “economic engine” that powers Loudoun's future.  Your email referenced other projects that would “help spur critical economic development and job creation in some of the areas hardest hit by the economic recession.” Given that Rail to Dulles and Loudoun is the biggest transportation project in the history of the Commonwealth, it seems like it ought to have a spot on your short list  and maybe qualify for a lot more than the $150M you have committed. What’s up with this?

Another concern I have is with a rumor that is circulating that says the Commonwealth caved on its position in regard to the Project Labor Agreement (PLA) and that the PLA is really a payment on an IOU to unions that would raise the price of the rail project by hundreds of millions. If this pay-off is in there by any name, it would be paid for with a check written on the accounts of your constituents who use the Dulles Toll Road and pay state and local taxes. I’m coming to you, Governor, because I remember from your campaign, that you know how important jobs are to Virginia's economic recovery; Right?

Sorry to talk about rumors so much, but here is another one going around that you should know about. It appears to have been started by The Federal Transit Administration who rejected funding Dulles Rail Phase 2 previously due to low forecast ridership. They said the rail project service area has less than half the population density stipulated by Federal and State government standards to meet minimum economically viable heavy rail ridership demand. Did this slip past you Governor?

Also, may I be so bold as to suggest you address another issue to put us all at ease? There seems to be a growing concern that VDOT has inadequate money to finance repairs to existing roads, and very little to pay for road expansion.  VDOT wants counties and cities to finance repairs on secondary roads. Congested roads in Virginia are not being budgeted for expansion. A subsidy for Phase 2 of the Dulles Rail removes more money for maintenance and road expansions. We have more than enough money, don’t we sir?

As I’m sure you know, some are saying Dulles Rail is our own local “Big Dig.” I came across this great video and this article  that I think you ought to see. Massachusetts apparently got sucked into a big project and it is a doozie. I understand that their Big Dig has put a crushing weight on the financial condition of the state of Massachusetts.  I am very concerned that if a $22B project can crush a state financially, what will it do to our local economy? Our local cost burden is about 77% of a less-than-half-done-project that has a price tag north of $7B (capital costs only) plus many times that when one looks a interest and overhead. Am I right that you would not buy into a project that has a high probability of bankrupting our local community?

Here’s what happened when leadership lost sight of reality in Massachusetts:

Boston Globe article: Cost spirals to $22b; crushing debt side tracks other work, pushes agency toward insolvency

"The Big Dig saddled us with costs we can't afford," said Bernard Cohen, secretary of transportation. "We are grappling with that legacy now. There are no easy answers."

Contrary to the popular belief that this was a project heavily subsidized by the federal government, 73 percent of construction costs were paid by Massachusetts drivers and taxpayers.

Big Dig payments have already sucked maintenance and repair money away from deteriorating roads and bridges across the state, forcing the state to float more highway bonds and to go even deeper into the hole.

Among other signs of financial trouble: The state is paying almost 80 percent of its highway workers with borrowed money; the crushing costs of debt have pushed the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority, which manages the Big Dig, to the brink of insolvency; and Massachusetts spends a higher percentage of its highway budget on debt than any other state.

Across the state, commuters are suffering daily for the massive shortfalls that have led to closings and stalled projects.
"The Big Dig drained funding away," Cohen said. "I can't tell you exactly how much, but it's been in the billions of dollars."

In closing Governor McDonnell, I trust you will address all these concerns and make farsighted decisions on Dulles Rail and other spending. I know this because your email also said,

“The condition of the Commonwealth’s transportation infrastructure is fundamentally linked to the strength of our economy and future economic growth, opportunity and prosperity  ... we will continue conceiving and implementing common-sense solutions  to ease traffic congestion, strengthen our economy, and get more of our fellow Virginians back to work.”

Happy New Year Governor,

David LaRock
Hamilton, Virginia

PS-  Delegate Bob Marshall and Senator–elect Dick Black seem to think that it is not wise to entrust $150 million dollars of Virginia money to MWAA unless they allow open audit and have FIOA access to their books, what do you think?

"Fairfax already made its mistake, maybe Loudoun can be stopped"...Ken Cuccinelli

Pictured below are representatives of Dulles Gateway Associates, West Dulles Properties and the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, waiting patiently.

Leesburg Today apparently asked some of the big playas in this Dulles Rail and Eastern Loudoun development  scheme for some insights on what they are hoping for. It is a pretty long and boring article, but if you read between the lines you can get the picture. The developers are pumping up a glitzy vision of pack-em and stack-em  development near rail stations, to entice the political people to buy-in (with our money of course). Neither side is talking enough about what we, the people of Loudoun, will get out of this grand scheme? Don't get me wrong, these guys must be some really sharp people, but unless the public reps employ some hard analysis, we may be left looking like roadkill as this transit/development project rolls right on over us.

Now let’s be clear here, I’m not a planner, a politician, a CEO, or a wealthy developer.  I am an average taxpayer with a few simple questions that I would really like to have answered before Loudoun jumps off the exact same cliff that our neighbors to the east, Fairfax, have.

In this Leesburg Today article, there is a lot of visionary sounding chat among these "rail supporters", but I ask, have our representatives even done a feasibility study that justifies this mega-vision and is there some hope of an economic payback  to the County, from all this Profit Induced Development? Could it be that support is not based on a selfless desire to promote the best interests of Loudoun County?

I’m wondering, because when I attended the Loudoun Board meeting in mid-November when they voted on the MOA thing, I heard county staff inform the current board members that this rail scheme would yield NO net revenue for 30 years.  Add this thought to the the 30 year timeline; most rail forecast are extremely exaggerated. So just maybe that 30 year mark would be 40, 50, or 60 years, or never. That would make this project a muti-billion dollar "Ooops!", for Loudoun.

Second question, do you really call something that will raise taxes, raise tolls and force lots of people back into traffic, an investment?  

Third question, have you read the 185 page Fiscal Impact Analysis. Page 40  says total income over 40 years will be just under $600M. The Loudoun contribution to maintenance of the Metro will be about $1B for the same period, the capital cost to build 2 stations will be +-$300M, and you have taken on building parking garages. Is there a magic formula to come up with the missing money, or do we call that a loss, and how about the cost to borrow all this loot, especially if Loudoun gets booted to below a AAA bond rating? Again, you are the experts, I’m just asking.

Last question, have you ever looked closely at how this rail project has impacted Fairfax, and how a similar super-expensive speculative project managed by No-Bid-Big Dig-Bechtel, (Phase 1 prime contractor), impacted that community?

Please do, because vision is great, but we also need some serious analysis.

 From 11/03/09 Washington Examiner, Barbara Hollingsworth: Walter Alcorn, vice chairman of Fairfax County's Planning Commission, finally conceded last week that turning suburban car-centric Tysons Corner into the Virginia version of downtown Manhattan is going to take some serious cash -- at least $15 billion for roads, sidewalks, overpasses and feeder buses necessary to make Phase 1 of the Dulles Rail project a success.

That's in addition to the $18 billion collected from drivers on the Dulles Toll Road for construction and interest for Phase 2 over the next 40 years, according to the Metropolitan Washington Airport Authority's August 2009 bond prospectus, and $4 billion ($100 million annually) in operating subsidies.

We're already up to $37 billion, and "Big Dig" Bechtel hasn't even had a chance to tack on its customary cost overruns, so let's round it up to an even $40 billion for a project that taxpayers were told in 2002 was supposed to cost no more than $4.1 billion ($1.5 billion for Phase 1 and $2.4 billion for Phase 2).

The price tag for Dulles Rail is now ten times what it was just seven years ago.

Ken Cuccinelli said, “This is a huge opportunity to stop an outrageous project that will be a rolling fiscal disaster for Loudoun for years to come.  Fairfax already made its mistake, maybe Loudoun can be stopped before driving off the cliff too.”

posted by David LaRock

Virginia’s Big Dig-Rail-to-Dulles Story is Huge

You can help stop the
Virginia Rail Big Dig by contacting your county supervisor and your state representatives

click here for contact info 

Hello citizens of Virginia,

It’s been a few weeks since we updated you to let you know about how Election Day polls showed the growing majority of support for getting Loudoun County out of what Attorney General calls a “financial boondoggle.”

How big is this project, people ask? In fact this project is so big, so expensive, and so out of control, we are renaming it “Virginia’s Big Dig.” It started out with a cost estimate of $1.9 billion in 2000 and is presently pushing $7 billion. That is really no surpise when you consider Bechtel is the contractor for the original Big Dig and now for Virginia's Big Dig. They, Bechtel, design it as they go and have a no-bid contract. Sweet deal for them as they play and we pay! 

 “It is a story about the power of government to commandeer billions of dollars of resources from taxpayers and to shower private-sector interests with billions of dollars in engineering contracts, construction contracts, bond deals and development opportunities.” says blogger Jim Bacon of Bacon’s Rebellion

Thomas Cranmer, an economist from Fairfax, put together this summary of issues with Phase 2 of the "Virginia Big Dig" sometimes called Rail to Dulles and Loudoun.  Read more here

Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli says that it should be killed and calls it an "economic boondoggle" the state doesn't need.

"It's just not worth it," Cuccinelli said in a recent appearance on WMAL radio. "It's a rip-off."

Cuccinelli also took issue with the airports authority's decision to pursue a union-friendly labor agreement for Phase 2. Virginia is a right-to-work state, meaning that union membership is not required to secure a job. The contractor, Dulles Transit Partners, voluntarily adopted a similar labor agreement for the project's first phase. Read More Here

How these mega-projects are sold to trusting people is an outrage. Two New Studies show a pattern of bias against transportation modes such as buses and a pattern of distorting rail budgets and projections to sell rail to the public. All this seems to be part of the effort to keep the hype up on rail, which is a far more expensive transit option than buses. The results often leave taxpayers stuck with far more dept than was promised, as with the Big Dig.

Dulles Toll Corridor prime example of bias & mis-selection Read More Here

Cited as an example of rigged selection against bus is the Dulles Toll Road corridor where an approximate $6 billion rail transit line is currently under construction, the financing being heavily based on toll revenue bonds.

Scholars have also found that it can be politically rewarding to lie about the costs and benefits of a project

Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University says, "Unfortunately, studies (see page 4) have shown that project promoters routinely ignore, hide, or otherwise leave out important project costs and risks to make total costs appear lower. Researchers refer to this as the “planning fallacy” or the “optimism bias.” Scholars have also found that it can be politically rewarding to lie about the costs and benefits of a project. The data show that the political process is more likely to give funding to managers who underestimate the costs and overestimate the benefits. In other words, it is not the best projects that get implemented but the ones that look the best on paper." she also said, "...9 out of 10 rail projects overestimate the actual traffic. Moreover, 84 percent of rail-passenger forecasts are wrong by more than 20 percent. Thus, for rail, passenger traffic averages 51.4 percent less than estimated traffic. This means that there is a systematic tendency to overestimate rail revenues."

Senator Richard Black and Delegate Bob Marshall


Propose Legislation Efforts are underway by Virginia Delegates and Senators to block handing over any money to MWAA for rail unless they back-off their insistence on importing union labor, and they are demanding MWAA submit to open audit and FOIA laws.
Robert G. Marshall, R-Manassas, has filed a bill to prohibit the use of state revenues for construction of Phase 2 of the Dulles Corridor Metrorail project unless the project meets three transparency standards. Senator-elect Dick Black R-Prince William, Loudoun submitted a companion bill.

This is where we are headed if people do not speak up.

Commuters get stuck in traffic and pay $17 tolls each way by 2020, while a few rail users will get an almost free ride.

Drivers will vote with their routes and clog nearby roads but they will still pay one way or another.

Rail stations generate far more traffic than they eliminate, which in turn requires more expensive road upgrades.

Construction jobs go out of state with the PLA-like terms that are part of the union payoff favored by the MWAA board.

Virginia may or may  choose not to participate financially in this project that will send jobs to out of state union halls in defiance of its right to work laws and at a time when jobs are precious. Keep in mind the money to pay for those jobs, and the cost of the project overall is coming out of the pockets of Virginia taxpayers and commuters.

Local budgets will be forced to deal with competing interests if local communities are strapped with massive capital costs and a share of maintaining the aging Metro fleet. The estimated annual  maintenance cost share for Loudoun is forecast to be $33 million which is about $25million more than it will take in annually. And those costs will likely climb if they are based on deliberately inaccurate projections.

Schools and other programs will suffer as they compete for a limited amount of local and state money.

You can help stop the Virginia Rail Big Dig by contacting your county supervisor and your state representatives and writing letters to editors

David LaRock

Hamilton Virginia

representatives contact info