Wake up Loudoun, you may be next!

Loudoun County Board of Supervisors

"Who Do You Serve?"

 Please read the article below. It paints a pretty clear picture of how big business interests in Tysons Corners milked the taxpayer for every nickel they could. Like it or not, that's how the game is played, because some businessmen are shrewd people who know how to make money the easy way.
How?  They just keep the campaign contributions, empty promises and press releases rolling, making sure the politicians are there to sign on the dotted line when it's time to close the deal.
If there is any doubt that rail is a financial scam that will roll right over trusting citizens, putting them deeper in debt while the winners take all, then look again. Just follow the money.

Sheep paying unfunded Costs - Reston Times 9-28-05

This is a portrait of a scam: The developer wants rail to come past his land so the value will soar. Business people think maybe some mega-bucks will spin off to them. Developer steps up and says I'll kick in 25 percent of the cost out of the kindness of my heart, BUT, the fine print says they will only pay a puny pitance of the actual costs. The developers share is fixed, and the taxpayers pay the rest. And know this; Big-Dig-No-Bid-Design-As-You-Go-Bechtel will bleed the job until there is nothing left.
Rail to Dulles and Loudoun is a scam. Face it, they win, we lose. The wheelin' dealin' developers just keep telling our local boys what a sweet dealio this rail thing is.

"I'm telling you son, a guy that works with us to make this happen will really look smart. This will be your county's key to the future, bla, bla, bla." The public is just too out of touch to see the big picture.

This looks and smells like a taxpayer funded stimulus for the business community...because it is.
Question to Loudoun Supervisors:

"Who do you serve?"

David LaRock
Hamilton Virginia

Rail to Loudoun-Just build that big shiny choo choo train!

"Just build that big shiny choo choo train and then find out what's in it for you"

In the time I spend studying Rail to Dulles and Beyond, I am amazed at how weak the answers are to the why, when, how, and how much questions. In fact, the whole pro-rail push offers very little real information, say in the form of a feasibility study or ridership study. The MWAA team must have learned a while back when they commissioned an Environmental Impact Study in 2004 that showed how utterly worthless rail would be as a remedy for traffic congestion, that facts were better kept behind closed doors. This whole situation reminds me of the Nancy Pelosi advice on Obamacare; just pass it and then find out what's in there... you know, like a grab bag gift.

Believe it or not, our leaders are being lobbied with talk that sounds a bit like extortion or at least distortion to me. They ask, "Why not bring Loudoun into the Rail scheme, because if Loudoun opts out, DTR tolls will be even higher?" A fitting answer might be something like, "Because even if opting out meant a dollar or two more in tolls, staying in would not be worth a lifetime of financial bondage to Metro, feeding the money black hole named WMATA (Metro)." In fact the question is built on the premise that there is not a good choice open to Loudoun. There is! Opt out of Phase II, let them bring the rail to the airport, and pay $0...net savings, billions, tolls would not be affected.

Just lately, as I seemed to be getting a grasp of how outrageous this rail construction thing is, along comes the realization that the rail issue is not just about construction of rail, it also includes long term money commitments to WMATA (Metro's overseers).

"How do people get themselves into these messes?" Whether it is MWAA controlling the Toll Road or WMATA tapping into Loudoun for a lifetime subsidy fix,it all starts when somebody messes up big time and signs off on these wretched deals.

The kicker is that good guys like Delegate Joe May smelled the rat ahead of time with the Dulles Toll Road. He knew that in principle, something was wrong.

In 2005, Joe May certainly grasped the inequity of tolls being an implicit tax and spoke out against it...until he decided to go along with it. In 2005, one year before he supported the transfer to MWAA, he opposed tolls, calling them an implicit tax. Why then did he change his song and start favoring the idea of turning over the DTR to MWAA to use those tolls or taxes, to finance rail?

from connection news 2005:

 Del. Joe T. May  voiced his dissent in a letter to Whittington Clement, Commonwealth  Transportation Secretary and chairman of the Commonwealth Transportation  Board.
"What VDOT and the Commonwealth Transportation Board are proposing for  commuters on the Dulles Toll Road is, in reality, not a fee increase but an  implicit tax increase," May wrote. "They are attempting to impose this tax while  avoiding substantive public debate and preventing elected officials from going  on the record."
http://www.connectionnewspapers.com/article.asp?article=246861&paper=67&cat=104

Tim Kaine could have made the DTR a free road as promised, he instead, turned the DTR over to MWAA to redistribute the tolls from Va commuters to build a train they (the commuters) would,in all likelihood,never use. Tim's shortsighted decision led to what we have now, the threat of a $30 round trip Leesburg to DC.

The point is this; another wrong turn will not make it right. If we (Loudoun) buy into rail to save a few bucks on tolls, we are  forever 'in' as shareholders in a broke, rundown, underfunded, union run, and underused transit mode. Why? Just to have an excuse to give away some density and stimulate development that would happen with or without rail, if at all (this is another popular false justification).

Joe May probably had a slick lobbyist explain to him why he should just go along with it, even though Joe knew deep down it was bad for his constituents. Joe did it anyway and he can never change that. Unfortunately, we will pay for it until we have a strong enough governor to undo it. If Joe had stood on principle with those opposing the transfer, others would have joined him, and just maybe we would not be where we are.

At least the price of building rail is a finite amount that in 30 years would be paid off, but buy-in to WMATA, that is a different scale of mistake,its forever.

David LaRock
Hamilton, Virginia

Getting Virginia moving (forward) again - not from Governor Bob McDonnell

Happy New Year to you, Governor McDonnell, and best of luck on your future endeavors. Here is an inspirational quote that brought you to mind.

"I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind."  Grover Cleveland

Dear Governor McDonnell,

I received your “Getting Virginia moving again” email and see it is full of great ideas, “Way to go.” As your time allows, help me understand a few things which I find difficult to square with your ideas for “Getting Virginia moving again.”

This clear statement from your email stood out as I read it,

“..we have been hard at work putting this new money to use efficiently and effectively in every region of the state...” 

Will this be the vision for next year as well? I wonder because I did not see any mention of the Dulles Rail mega-project that is going on near my home in Loudoun County. Some local folks say this will be the “economic engine” that powers Loudoun's future.  Your email referenced other projects that would “help spur critical economic development and job creation in some of the areas hardest hit by the economic recession.” Given that Rail to Dulles and Loudoun is the biggest transportation project in the history of the Commonwealth, it seems like it ought to have a spot on your short list  and maybe qualify for a lot more than the $150M you have committed. What’s up with this?

Another concern I have is with a rumor that is circulating that says the Commonwealth caved on its position in regard to the Project Labor Agreement (PLA) and that the PLA is really a payment on an IOU to unions that would raise the price of the rail project by hundreds of millions. If this pay-off is in there by any name, it would be paid for with a check written on the accounts of your constituents who use the Dulles Toll Road and pay state and local taxes. I’m coming to you, Governor, because I remember from your campaign, that you know how important jobs are to Virginia's economic recovery; Right?

Sorry to talk about rumors so much, but here is another one going around that you should know about. It appears to have been started by The Federal Transit Administration who rejected funding Dulles Rail Phase 2 previously due to low forecast ridership. They said the rail project service area has less than half the population density stipulated by Federal and State government standards to meet minimum economically viable heavy rail ridership demand. Did this slip past you Governor?

Also, may I be so bold as to suggest you address another issue to put us all at ease? There seems to be a growing concern that VDOT has inadequate money to finance repairs to existing roads, and very little to pay for road expansion.  VDOT wants counties and cities to finance repairs on secondary roads. Congested roads in Virginia are not being budgeted for expansion. A subsidy for Phase 2 of the Dulles Rail removes more money for maintenance and road expansions. We have more than enough money, don’t we sir?

As I’m sure you know, some are saying Dulles Rail is our own local “Big Dig.” I came across this great video and this article  that I think you ought to see. Massachusetts apparently got sucked into a big project and it is a doozie. I understand that their Big Dig has put a crushing weight on the financial condition of the state of Massachusetts.  I am very concerned that if a $22B project can crush a state financially, what will it do to our local economy? Our local cost burden is about 77% of a less-than-half-done-project that has a price tag north of $7B (capital costs only) plus many times that when one looks a interest and overhead. Am I right that you would not buy into a project that has a high probability of bankrupting our local community?

Here’s what happened when leadership lost sight of reality in Massachusetts:

Boston Globe article: Cost spirals to $22b; crushing debt side tracks other work, pushes agency toward insolvency

"The Big Dig saddled us with costs we can't afford," said Bernard Cohen, secretary of transportation. "We are grappling with that legacy now. There are no easy answers."

Contrary to the popular belief that this was a project heavily subsidized by the federal government, 73 percent of construction costs were paid by Massachusetts drivers and taxpayers.

Big Dig payments have already sucked maintenance and repair money away from deteriorating roads and bridges across the state, forcing the state to float more highway bonds and to go even deeper into the hole.

Among other signs of financial trouble: The state is paying almost 80 percent of its highway workers with borrowed money; the crushing costs of debt have pushed the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority, which manages the Big Dig, to the brink of insolvency; and Massachusetts spends a higher percentage of its highway budget on debt than any other state.

Across the state, commuters are suffering daily for the massive shortfalls that have led to closings and stalled projects.
"The Big Dig drained funding away," Cohen said. "I can't tell you exactly how much, but it's been in the billions of dollars."

In closing Governor McDonnell, I trust you will address all these concerns and make farsighted decisions on Dulles Rail and other spending. I know this because your email also said,

“The condition of the Commonwealth’s transportation infrastructure is fundamentally linked to the strength of our economy and future economic growth, opportunity and prosperity  ... we will continue conceiving and implementing common-sense solutions  to ease traffic congestion, strengthen our economy, and get more of our fellow Virginians back to work.”

Happy New Year Governor,

David LaRock
Hamilton, Virginia

PS-  Delegate Bob Marshall and Senator–elect Dick Black seem to think that it is not wise to entrust $150 million dollars of Virginia money to MWAA unless they allow open audit and have FIOA access to their books, what do you think?

"Fairfax already made its mistake, maybe Loudoun can be stopped"...Ken Cuccinelli

Pictured below are representatives of Dulles Gateway Associates, West Dulles Properties and the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, waiting patiently.

Leesburg Today apparently asked some of the big playas in this Dulles Rail and Eastern Loudoun development  scheme for some insights on what they are hoping for. It is a pretty long and boring article, but if you read between the lines you can get the picture. The developers are pumping up a glitzy vision of pack-em and stack-em  development near rail stations, to entice the political people to buy-in (with our money of course). Neither side is talking enough about what we, the people of Loudoun, will get out of this grand scheme? Don't get me wrong, these guys must be some really sharp people, but unless the public reps employ some hard analysis, we may be left looking like roadkill as this transit/development project rolls right on over us.

Now let’s be clear here, I’m not a planner, a politician, a CEO, or a wealthy developer.  I am an average taxpayer with a few simple questions that I would really like to have answered before Loudoun jumps off the exact same cliff that our neighbors to the east, Fairfax, have.

In this Leesburg Today article, there is a lot of visionary sounding chat among these "rail supporters", but I ask, have our representatives even done a feasibility study that justifies this mega-vision and is there some hope of an economic payback  to the County, from all this Profit Induced Development? Could it be that support is not based on a selfless desire to promote the best interests of Loudoun County?

I’m wondering, because when I attended the Loudoun Board meeting in mid-November when they voted on the MOA thing, I heard county staff inform the current board members that this rail scheme would yield NO net revenue for 30 years.  Add this thought to the the 30 year timeline; most rail forecast are extremely exaggerated. So just maybe that 30 year mark would be 40, 50, or 60 years, or never. That would make this project a muti-billion dollar "Ooops!", for Loudoun.

Second question, do you really call something that will raise taxes, raise tolls and force lots of people back into traffic, an investment?  

Third question, have you read the 185 page Fiscal Impact Analysis. Page 40  says total income over 40 years will be just under $600M. The Loudoun contribution to maintenance of the Metro will be about $1B for the same period, the capital cost to build 2 stations will be +-$300M, and you have taken on building parking garages. Is there a magic formula to come up with the missing money, or do we call that a loss, and how about the cost to borrow all this loot, especially if Loudoun gets booted to below a AAA bond rating? Again, you are the experts, I’m just asking.

Last question, have you ever looked closely at how this rail project has impacted Fairfax, and how a similar super-expensive speculative project managed by No-Bid-Big Dig-Bechtel, (Phase 1 prime contractor), impacted that community?

Please do, because vision is great, but we also need some serious analysis.

 From 11/03/09 Washington Examiner, Barbara Hollingsworth: Walter Alcorn, vice chairman of Fairfax County's Planning Commission, finally conceded last week that turning suburban car-centric Tysons Corner into the Virginia version of downtown Manhattan is going to take some serious cash -- at least $15 billion for roads, sidewalks, overpasses and feeder buses necessary to make Phase 1 of the Dulles Rail project a success.

That's in addition to the $18 billion collected from drivers on the Dulles Toll Road for construction and interest for Phase 2 over the next 40 years, according to the Metropolitan Washington Airport Authority's August 2009 bond prospectus, and $4 billion ($100 million annually) in operating subsidies.

We're already up to $37 billion, and "Big Dig" Bechtel hasn't even had a chance to tack on its customary cost overruns, so let's round it up to an even $40 billion for a project that taxpayers were told in 2002 was supposed to cost no more than $4.1 billion ($1.5 billion for Phase 1 and $2.4 billion for Phase 2).

The price tag for Dulles Rail is now ten times what it was just seven years ago.

Ken Cuccinelli said, “This is a huge opportunity to stop an outrageous project that will be a rolling fiscal disaster for Loudoun for years to come.  Fairfax already made its mistake, maybe Loudoun can be stopped before driving off the cliff too.”

posted by David LaRock