WARNING: Metro = Never Ending Debt and TAXES

WARNING

Note: The information below represents costs generated by Loudoun which are grossly understated, many costs categories are omitted, and forecast revenue is exaggerated.  


Note: There is no guarantee tax districts will ever be formed or that they could come close to generating enough revenue to protect citizens from being permanent  Metro cash cows.


Note: The fact that NONE of the elaborate and complex preparation to establish tax districts has even begun proves that the offer to do this timed at the last minute, is a cheap attempt to defraud the public.


The ONLY safe course is to first OPT OUT to protect the 99.99% of the people of Loudoun who will see no benefit whatsoever  from Rail. 

________________________________________________________________________

Metro to Loudoun At Any Cost? You Will Pay!

Proposed Metro Taxation Scheme

Cost to bring Metrorail two miles past Dulles Airport = $1.5 billion

A combination of these options is being considered by the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors: 

Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Tax

$0.10- $0.17 (8%-13.7% increase over $1.235 base rate)

1-Mile Rail District

$0.09- $0.20 (7.2%-16% increase over $1.235 base rate)

2-Mile Rail District

$0.09- $0.21 (7.2%-17% increase over $1.235 base rate)

Countywide Real Property Tax Increase

$0.035 across-the-board property tax increase

Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce on May 23 passed a resolution endorsing the lower-end C&I tax for the County, and the higher-end 1-mile Rail tax district rates. Partial text of their resolution is:

Is GMU Now the Local Source of Obama-Economics?

"Trust me I work for the developers 
and I want to help them you." S.F.

Letter sent to the faculty of the GMU Economics Department

Is GMU Now the Local Source of Obama-Economics?

Will someone at George Mason please help us before we decide on Metro?
This is the headline of the week; “Loudoun County Could Lose Billions Without theSilver Line, Study Says"

Is something fishy going on here? Is GMU now the source of a local version of Obama-Economics, all fluff and no meat? When did GMU faculty start offering guaranteed winning lottery tickets payable sometime in the distant future to local municipal governments? Did someone pardon Bernie Madoff and set him up doing business in the area or what?
I am a resident of Loudoun County, I am furious, and I would like some answers, please. As you may know, Loudoun is under intense pressure to make a decision that involves huge amounts of money, sums that would cause state and federal branches to take pause. This is serious stuff. Enter stage right, compliments of the local rail station land owners, one of your own, the esteemed Dr. Stephen Fuller. Versions of this headline are everywhere and the pressure on Loudoun Supervisors to cash in on this promise is intense.

So I ask you people of the Economics Department of GMU, the peers of Dr. Fuller, ‘Is this a bona fide study’ or a hack job? Would you bank your economic future on this as Fuller is suggesting the taxpayers of Loudoun should do? Fuller himself says that question is a “No brainer.” I guess he thinks the answer to that is more obvious than I do.
Here is some background. Loudoun has in hand a study from the Robert Charles Lesser Co. (RCLCO), a 210 page presentation, 400 pages of appendices. For some reason the RCLCO people made these statements that are difficult to reconcile with the Fuller claims, 

"Nonetheless, RCLCO has not found any credible evidence to indicate that the extension of rail transit brings new development to an entire region.” RCLCO

  “This greater intensity of development at station areas will come at the expense of slower development elsewhere in the county...” RCLCO (Development shifted but not increased).

In a letter dated February 10th, 2012, Dr. Fuller began his lobbying in a letter to Loudoun Chairman, Scott York. He had this to say,  “All the forecasts for the County’s future economic growth include the provision of Metrorail service.” He continues saying, “In the absence of Metrorail service beyond Dulles Airport, these projections are very different. The “with” and “without” differences are more than significant and easily demonstrate what a great public investment this Metrorail extension is.” Stephen FullerI’m not a PhD, but if all the studies you have considered Metrorail service beyond Dulles Airport, how do you define the outcome projections in “without” scenario? I’ll attach a copy of the letter and the questions I sent to Fuller in response to this letter. I’m not holding my breath waiting for a reply. 
Now I’d like to see if I can persuade you folks to feel some of my pain. Your GMU vision statement says this:

GMU will -Nurture and support a highly qualified and entrepreneurial faculty that is excellent at teaching, active in pure and applied research, capable of providing a broad range of intellectual and cultural insights, and responsive to the needs of students and their communities.
GMU will -Maintain an international reputation for superior education and public services that affirms its role as the intellectual and cultural nexus among Northern Virginia, the nation and the world.

The GMU Mission Statement sets the bar pretty high. Will you keep it there?
I will say that Fuller did disclose one of his potential conflicts. His bio page reads like a list of who’s who of businesses and entities that might be in line to directly benefit if Loudoun takes his advice. Likewise, GMU appears to also have Close ties to Cardinal Bank who services the borrowing needs of Comstock Development, a Dulles Rail (proposed) station land owner/developer. GMU should work together with decision makers and businesses in the community, but when it comes to influencing important decisions, credibility is everything. There is a distinct difference between cronyism and corruption, but neither is becoming to an institution that values its good name.

This is a link to Dr. Stephen Fuller’s 14 page “study” from which the spectacular claims that fill local newspaper headlines are taken.http://cra.gmu.edu/pdfs/Loudoun_MetroRail.pdf


I see little in the way of source material, no explanation of assumptions, no methods, no mention of peer review, nothing that would allow others to verify or refute his opinions.


I personally verified that Dr. Fuller did not take into account the ravages that are pending as Dulles Toll Road tolls, the funding source of Dulles Rail, increase so drastically that it will push our local roads past the limit. I doubt Dr. Fuller took into consideration the effect of tax districts that might be established if Loudoun opts in. For that matter, the study has no mention of costs whatsoever, so it is safe to assume that opportunity costs of tying up vast amounts of capital and the effect it will have on the local economy, has not been considered either.


The proponents of the Silver Line have failed to provide a clear and unambiguous picture of the cost to Loudoun County. The Loudoun County Board of Supervisors has been placed in an awkward position of being pro-business and supporting critical infrastructure while facing a muddled and inequitable role as a participant in the Metro system. Will you help them?

Fuller said developers made a $15,000 contribution for his research to George Mason University. "Well, if you don't like the message you shoot the messenger," Fuller said. "Isn't that always the case?" I don’t want to shoot the messenger, but I sure would like to know if GMU is willing to stand behind his message.

Will someone at George Mason please help us before we decide on Metro?Will you look at Fuller’s study and provide an expert opinion on whether this study and its results should overshadow our other forecasts. Or is this a bad joke that needs to be exposed and discredited before its testimony has its intended effect? It just makes sense to resolve this in-house.

David LaRock

Loudoun County Resident

and proud father of a GMU graduate

Metro Math FAILS...It is a Big Loser!

Even Loudoun's Low-ball Estimates Reveal $713 Million Loss on Rail
Note: Based on Loudoun County-released information. Actual costs may double these estimates

Are you listening? Your Taxes WILL go up and stay up to pay for the Metro

Based on the county’s own low-ball guesstimates Metro will cost Loudoun taxpayers $1.2 Billion over the next 28 years.

It will probably be many times more than that amount.

See the full accounting of this black hole of debt spending here.

Please urge Chairman York and Supervisors Clarke, Higgins, Letourneau, Volpe, and Williams to go on-the-record for OPTing OUT. Elected officials can’t commit Loudoun to $1.2 billion in Metro taxes and claim to be ‘fiscal conservatives.’ Ask them why fiscal conservatives favor this kind of BAILOUT.

Don’t just call them once; they need to hear from you once a week until they publicly commit to BAIL on RAIL and avoid this financial disaster!

---

The Most Senseless Transportation Project Ever?

...but Dulles Rail is the sweetest of real estate deals for a few influential land owners. When too much money gets in the hands of a few powerful elected people, the taxpayers get fleeced.


A little more history. Rail to Dulles was always contemplated. A wide median was left in the middle of the Airport Access Road (AAR) to accommodate rail. The original plan was to build rail solely in that median, with various stops along the way, including one at Tysons. There was concern the area to be served by rail was not dense enough to support heavy rail. To address that issue and also to enrich Tysons landowners, the plan was modified to run rail through Tysons with three stations being built. (Then chairman of the Fairfax County BoS and SAIC employee, Gerry Connolly, had the plan modified to add a 4th station stop in front of SAIC’s Tysons building.) But this left the "Who will pay for it?" unresolved.

Violence and Getting to Know Metro

KHH from Middleburg facebook comment:

  "I grew up outside of Philly, in Cherry Hill NJ. People were thrilled when the train crossed the river into our town...until everyone living near the stops were being robbed during the day...things that could easily be carried, money, jewelry, etc. that were found in homes. Be careful!"

Real Life Violence may be one reason why so few people actually ride Metro.

What is the allure of Metro? Maybe some think it will make us more like Paris or Singapore. But in reality, the Washington Merto is anything but romantic, unless your idea of romance is being trapped in a closed space with a bunch of thugs who know they have power over you. The link below gives an account of this happening recently to a DC Metro rider. This is probably a unique occurrence, right?